New Asian Century Part 2

Lagging behind
According to BBC report, India’s economy is lagging 15 years behind and China has the advantages of modern infrastructure. India built its economic boom top down ( with the impressive IT and software sector) which do not require a decent road or ports systems. China on the other hand worked from the bottom up, building on cheap labour and sell to the world. The verdict is for China to overtake US as India;s biggest trading nation. This means more cheap goods flooding Indian markets and China would have time to invest heavily to create a hi-tech industrial base to rival India’s

I am under the impression that China is going to win the sprint. Some western media believe India may win the marathon with their demoracy government but would need China to stumble. They were hoping the 1997 economic bubbles burst would happen to China.
The argument that India can cope with economic slowdown better since they have ballot box with the biggest democracy system in the world, free media and the right to get people to march down the street in protest of the government. But the Chinese don’t have the privilege. Communism been replaced by unbridle capitalism, making money at any cost with reference to the recent recalled toxic toys and fake baby food. In short, China cannot afford to slow down because it must create millions of new jobs every year to prevent discontented unemployed youths and agitate against the state.

I must admit this is very true. The Chinese leadership is not moving in the same pace with their social and political structure. It seems that the fastest way to solve problem is to execute few people and expect the problem to be solved. The lack of free media and accountability in China may cause unrest. I don’t expect quick solution but I am happy that the western power is spotting China’s problem and keep attacking. The Chinese may not change things but that would make them aware of the bad consequences of their actions. They need to be educated to have a liberal society and the importance of an accountable government. Time will tell if China is going to be another Soviet union or the old time big power. The truth is China holds their own destiny on their hand. Meanwhile India will need to run faster to win medals in this year’s Olympic Games.

New Asian Century Part 1

Just five years into the new millennium, America’s national Intelligence Council was hailing the Asian century with India and China as the new major global players. Lee Kuan yew supported the china cause that they will be developed nation by 2050. Nobody’s arguing with the prediction with dozens of front page magazine covers and newspaper commentary, Instead the talk is about which will be the more powerful between India and China.

I would chose China as the more powerful one. Should China be seen as emerging Great Power? With China’s dominance in 17th and early 18th century and China should now be considered as a re-emerging Great power.

Containing India
The Chinese look at some catastrophic event of 20th century inflicted by the greedy foreign power, shameless Little Japan and home grown luncies , like Cultural Revolution and Tianamen Square incident, as a blip in an otherwise 5000 year long history of glory.

There's been a lot of talk from both countries about partnership. But in reality the Chinese don’t consider India an equal now or in the future. At best they see it as an emerging political power that needs to be contained rather than a potential global partner .

For India , there are 2 things that makes the Chinese like their father’s killer. The first is the war with China in 1962 which most Indians viewed as gross betrayal or humiliation.
The second is China’s good relationship with Pakistan. They believe, withouth China, Pakistan would still not have a nuclear bomb.